For what a former Houston Astros pitcher will deliver in 2025, a team may be overpaying.

A couple of the Houston Astros’ important players were available on the open market when free agency began.

The Astros were aware going into the offseason that they would probably lose some of their players, and early in the winter, starting pitcher Yusei Kikuchi already signed a big contract with the Los Angeles Angels.

Not only is Kikuchi no longer part of their starting lineup from the previous season, but Justin Verlander is also available.

Father time may be catching up with the right-hander despite a stellar career.

He finished 2024 with a 5-6 record and a 5.48 ERA.

He blamed his early return from a neck injury for the worst performance of his career.

Verlander, who is forty-two, still aspires to win and pitch well before he retires. He will probably have a few competing teams eager to take a risk on him despite the poor season, hoping that 2024 was just a year of injury-related setbacks.

Bleacher Report’s Tim Kelly recently discussed players who would probably receive excessive compensation this winter and explained why that would be the case for the future Hall of Famer.

Although it would be exciting to watch Verlander find a new life and reach 300 career wins—he now has 262—history indicates that it’s far more likely that he’s finally hitting a wall for good. Verlander will turn 42 in February. Verlander has a very real risk of receiving $10–$15 million for 2025 and not being able to stay healthy enough to pitch regularly, even if it’s just for a year.

It is difficult to believe that Verlander will pitch for a full season in 2025 given his age of 40 and the ailments that kept him out of action the previous season.

A contending team might be prepared to hold him back at the start of the season to keep him healthy for the second half and stretch run, but if he makes less than 20 starts, he could undoubtedly end up being overpaid if his salary is between $10 and $15 million.

It is extremely difficult to forecast the right-hander’s performance in 2025.

Although teams will undoubtedly be willing to take a chance on Verlander, if his performance is similar to that of the previous season, they may end up overpaying.

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Left-hander Yusei Kikuchi and LA Angels finalize a $63 million, 3-year contract

On Wednesday, left-hander Yusei Kikuchi and the Los Angeles Angels agreed to a three-year, $63 million deal.

With $21 million a year, the 33-year-old’s Major League Baseball earnings over nine seasons total $142 million.

Kikuchi, a 2021 All-Star for Seattle, was 9-10 with a 4.05 ERA in 32 starts this season for Toronto and Houston, who traded him on July 30 for minor league first baseman Will Wagner, rookie outfielder Joey Loperfido, and right-hander Jake Bloss, age 23.

In 10 starts with the Astros, Kikuchi went 5-1 with a 2.70 ERA, walking 14 and striking out 76 in 60 innings. This year, he hit his four-seam fastball at the highest average in his big league career—95.5 mph.

In his six seasons with Seattle (2019–21), Toronto (2022–24), and Houston, he is 41–47 with a 4.57 ERA.

Before the 2019 season, Kikuchi joined the Mariners after Seattle agreed to a three-year, $43 million contract. Additionally, the Mariners paid the Seibu Lions of the Pacific League a posting fee of $10,275,000. In March 2022, he agreed to a three-year, $36 million contract with Toronto.

So far this offseason, the Angels have been baseball’s most aggressive team. Kikuchi is part of a projected rotation that also includes right-handers José Soriano and Kyle Hendricks, who signed a $2.5 million, one-year contract with the Chicago Cubs as a free agent, and left-handers Tyler Anderson and Reid Detmers.

On October 31, right-hander Griffin Canning was dealt to the Atlanta Braves for Jorge Soler, a designated hitter and outfielder. Additionally, Los Angeles signed catcher Travis d’Arnaud to a two-year, $12 million contract.

The Angels had their ninth consecutive losing season, their first since losing Shohei Ohtani to the Dodgers in free agency, with a franchise-worst 63-99 record. Since 2014, they have not made it to the playoffs.