The Denver Nuggets have been one of Miami’s most formidable opponents over the last six seasons, and things didn’t get any easier when Jimmy Butler injured his ankle in the opening quarter.
Denver got out to a scorching start with three consecutive three-pointers and a ton of transition work; in fact, Nikola Jokic assisted on five of their first seven baskets.
However, the real story of Denver games doesn’t begin until Jokic rests and Denver moves further into their rotation. During these early days of the season, Jokic’s club has had a net rating of +8.1 per 100 possessions when he is on the court, but -22.0 when he is not. As one of Jokic’s favorite targets, Peyton Watson filled in for Aaron Gordon, who was missed by Denver.
Despite this, their offense was operating as it should have, leading 40-27 at the end of the first quarter.
However, Miami moved into zone as soon as Jokic departed the game and went on a 10-0 run, with Bam Adebayo entering as some threes began to fall.
The Heat remained close, with Herro and Duncan Robinson making three after three despite Denver shooting more than half of their shots from beyond the arc, but Jokic quickly came back to steady the ship. He played 21 of 24 first-half minutes.
Following a last-second transition play that found Christian Braun in the corner and a +21 from Jokic, the Nuggets led 71-60 at the half.
Haywood As he did against Phoenix on Wednesday, Highsmith started the second half in place of Nikola Jovic, while Pelle Larsson replaced Butler. Denver started the third game with a 15-4 run, much like they did in the first, and the advantage increased to 22.
The outcomes were the same. Although it was a slow slog, with Jokic reaching his triple double halfway through the session, HEAT continued to make three-pointers to give themselves a chance.
Adebayo is back to zone, and Denver’s defense is beginning to let up on the other end, allowing two back cuts. Non-Jokic minutes are due early in the fourth, and after 11 more Herro points, the score was down to 14 at the end of the quarter.
These non-Jokic minutes didn’t go as well since Denver extended the lead back to 18 points with Jamal Murray (28 points on 17 shots, several late stiff-arm jumpers) on the floor.
As the ascent became steeper, the zone stopped being flummoxing. After two Denver turnovers, it quickly dropped down to 14, but it was short-lived as a Watson jumper in the center of the zone brought it back to 19.
Fortunately, Robinson continued to score, and after another three and another steal, it was down to 13 once more. After that, Herro (24 points on 21 shots) made another three, and it was down to 10.
Another Robinson three (No. 6 for him, No. 19 for Miami) would have brought it back to seven, but there was no surrender, not even close. With Murray and Jokic running clock the rest of the way, Denver ran prevent offense and never really slowed down. Their one vulnerability in this game was turnovers. After Miami loses 135–122, Denver advances to Minnesota.
2. We say something along these lines almost every year, but it’s impossible to overlook the numerous problems Jokic poses to Miami’s defense. Even though Adebayo plays him tough, he loses a lot of weight in that matchup, making him a walking mismatch everywhere he goes.
This somewhat restricts Miami’s options when it comes to defending the pick-and-roll, and nobody else is better than Luka Doncic at beating the HEAT’s structure with the pass. Jokic runs straight over the wall that Miami intends to erect to block off the paint.
What else can you say when Jokic ends with a +26, 30 points (11 of 13 shooting), 11 rebounds, and 14 assists? It’s been said before. The five turnovers and the HEAT tipping some of his more daring passes may have been the weak points in this Colossus of Rhodes, but that team is long past being rattled when its key players are on the court.
Jokic and Murray ran 18–20 seconds off the clock each possession and finished with a touchdown as Miami came dangerously close in the closing minutes. Denver’s offensive rating at the end of the game was 133.7, which was probably much higher with Jokic on the court.
For years, every club in the league has been trying to find a player who can counter him, but the truth is that there aren’t many outside of his colleagues who aren’t making all of the plays (Denver shot 18-of-34 from deep themselves).
He may do it his own way, but there aren’t many more dominant players in league history, and there’s no other explanation for why Miami has recently found it so difficult to defeat the Nuggets.
3. Threes and turnovers are the key to understanding how Miami almost turned this into a crucial game after trailing by a significant margin in the third.
The latter was somewhat assisted by the zone, which saw 11 steals on a total of 17 forced turnovers and other clumsy Denver errors that resulted in Miami runouts.
Although Miami hasn’t used this aspect of their game as frequently as they did during the preseason, it is obvious that they still prioritize it. Herro may be leading the halfcourt attack more effectively than ever, but the effectiveness of the HEAT still depends heavily on those pick-six plays.
But when Denver was answering every two-point shot, going 23-of-27 at the rim and 6-of-11 from the upper paint, the threes were the story. Most teams would consider 20-of-43 from beyond the arc to be their best shooting night of the season after the 82, and Miami’s 20 makes would have been second-best last season. Robinson trimmed the deficit late, making 6-of-10 from beyond the arc on his way to 20 points on 12 shots, but Herro was still hot.
That’s how amazing the shooting was to get this close, one after another after another. Although Robinson appeared a bit slow during the first few weeks, as long as the body was functioning properly, there was never any significant concern.
The mechanics never truly falter, and Robinson is among the greatest shooters in team history—possibly among the best in league history when all is said and done. A few seasons ago, he responded to the one extended dip in his career by shooting 40% in the second half of that year.
Even though they spent a few more minutes together tonight, there are fewer handoffs with Adebayo now, so it doesn’t look nearly the same as it did before, but the shot is the shot. It was the umpteenth reminder of how rapidly Robinson can alter a game, even if it wasn’t enough tonight.
